The Investment Blog from Advantage 'zyaada'

zyaada movies

• After AOL Warner, the new megalith?
  December 4, 2009 | 2:06 am

  Can conventional media survive yet?

  
  

  The proposed $30-billion transaction is the fruition of a longtime ambition by Comcast’s 50-year-old chief executive, Brian Roberts, to recast his family-controlled Philadelphia company into a leading producer of movies and television shows and a purveyor of prominent cable and broadcast networks, including the venerable NBC.

  Under terms of the deal, Comcast will contribute its entertainment channels, including E and Versus; nine regional sports networks; and about $6.5 billion in cash in exchange for 51% of the new venture, which will continue to be called NBC Universal for the immediate future.

  The deal underscores how cable television — not a broadcast network or a Hollywood movie studio — has become the new profit center for media conglomerates.

  GE, which has owned the NBC network for 23 years, will reduce its ownership in the company to 49%. The deal sets up GE for a gradual exit from the entertainment business, granting Comcast the right to buy out GE’s interest within eight years. GE placed a value of $30 billion on its NBC Universal businesses.

  via Comcast deals to get GE out of NBC

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• India's new boom – Infrastructure, Lifestyle and Entertainment
  July 16, 2009 | 5:36 am
  If you have been following the India story closely, India’s new developments are focussed on Infrastructure and Retail along with giant leaps in the Entertainment business. You can look closely at the India stories at http://advantages.us/inframils to get a flavor of what’s happening.

  ADA Reliance (BIG entertainment) has today announced details of its venture with Dreamworks (Steven Spielberg) planning a 40% stake in the final entity capitalised at approx $830 million ($1b at USD rate of Rs. 40) with Disney holding another 15%. The Company holds a target of producing 5-6 films a year. BIG already has agreements with Nicholas Cage’s Saturn, Jim Carrey’s JC23, George Clooney’s Smokehouse, Chris Columbus’s 1492 Pictures, Tom Hank’s Playtone and Brad Pitt’s Plan B among others

  On the other hand Retail Lifestyle businesses are increasingly attracting investors with Rabobank’s India Agribusiness Fund picking up a 25% stake in Kishore Biyani’s Aadhaar Retail. Modern retailing businesses in India are predominantly located in cities with FDI restrictions except for Cash & Carry Businesses (100%) and Single Brand retail (51%) Rural Markets may grow at a faster pace at least on the Drawing board. One such project which extends Bangalore’s urban footprint to Bidadi is the Innovative Film City which also showcases the marriage of the rural and the urban as Bangalore expands to the West and the East and remains the fastest growing City in India. The problems on the ground remain. While the new real estate projects are trying to make a strong statement, the depression blues have not gone anywhere. In the showcased retail fund in ET today, for example, apart from Rabo Bank, the other investors are the usual suspects, IFC Washington a couple of /developed/semi developed state development bank(s) and institutions and select private investors. Where is Investor access? Why is it still on the government to make it happen? The FDI limits and the others are fairly rational policies..but where are the investors? Why are global investors so selective about projects? What does it take for them to find out ground realities and put it in the appropriate framework? At the end of the day India’s share in the Emerging Markets Indices is just 5% and emerging Markets worldwide probably get less than 20% of the global capital flows. One Federal Stimulus by Obama will be enough to keep US bankrupt for the next decade. I am not sure we are doing this right.
  Nanos will roll into homes by July end and IPL teams are already applying for trademarks as it looks set to become the greatest sporting extravaganza in the world, already ranked at #2 behind the NFL season in the USA. The 3G challenge will tear at Telecom companies’ profits in the coming years ( MTNL has managed 1000 subscribers in its sneak rollout) while public divestment targets were also subdued in the budget but are firming up. The Global ID cards will be implemented pretty slowly, starting off as a Central database, depending of departmental initiative to share information from tax to passport and BPL ration cards, credit card data and other biometric features to enable security and duplicate allocations etc.
  Health and Education have just recently been provided a long lost policy focus. But these investments will also yield success only when the fully integrate into India’s new Lifestyle Economy. Today the same investments are required in the US and the developing world. We need roads, we need power supply, we need an educated performing population and we need affordable healthcare.
  There are other things to be done. To quote the Policy pages of The Economic Times ( pg. 11, Arvind Mayaram) – While investments in roads, ports, airports and urban amenities have a cascading effect on the virtuous cycle of stimulating demand..the impact is the quickest and most spread out through investment in tourism infrastructure. India received just 5.37 million foreign tourists as compared to 57.6 million in Spain. Tourism arrivals grew during the recession worldwide as well.
  Global collaboration and Private enterprise cannot function without the appropriate investment infrastructure either. Investment flows are still uneven and the tenets of this new dream unpostulated. The new web has however found an entry point in global business with increasing discussions on structuring the global memes that bring in change. The question is, as they say in Hindi – Kaise hoga? How will we make it happen!
  India’s ICICI Bank is redesigning itself, taking more control of Investment Banking and Venture Capital business while private sector banking players are watching from the sidelines with Kotak Bank and Yes Bank not having the underwriting power or the global reach to finance and provide institutional support to those like the Innovative Film City in Bangalore or even others in and around New Delhi, Bombay, Bangalore and the growing cities of the country making this new boom more a story on paper yet than on the ground. It will be private enterprise that will win in the end with divestments from the government netting probably Rs 50,000 crores to the government to provide the support ( current target is firming up at Rs 15000 Crores or $ 3.15 billion)
  This is our story and we have to make it happen. When it does happen it will be a sterling surprise for India’s citizens. One budget cannot make it happen. But all of us can. And we have already decided to make it happen. Onward we move after Outsourcing, to new avenues for progress and growth. Will the Banking sector step up to the requirement? Will new social media bring in more than awareness and readership? How will we move forward? This is not about enabling policy. This is about hard investments. Anyone who can make a successful investment in India’s Lifestyle story will be able to create a successful brand and a successful business empire. Anyone who supports Private Consumption will have the right project skills to win for Team India.
  Tags: Global Investing, BRIC, Emerging Markets, India, India Infrastructure, Retail Lifestyle, Infrastructure, urban infrastructure, rural infrastructure, Power, Roads, Entertainment, Advantage zyaada, zyaada, zyakaira, Lifestyle Economy, Amitonomics

  Posted via email from The investment blog on Post

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• A Hollywood-Ending Portfolio – Forbes.com
  July 1, 2009 | 11:02 am

  As recession-weary Americans flock to the cinema, Hollywood has had good fortune in a year when most other industries are fighting for survival. According to Box Office Mojo, theatrical receipts are tallying close to 12% ahead of 2008. But which studios have lured moviegoers into theaters in this recession, and how can you turn a profit with them?Studios like Warner Bros. and Paramount are outperforming expectations, jam-packing the summer movie season with anticipated blockbusters. However, the real success seems to be coming from small and mid-size films. Warner Bros., a unit of Time Warner TWX – news – people , saw its comedy The Hangover pass the $180 million mark, and if it follows the path of Wedding Crashers, a comparable R-rated comedy, it could end up making north of $225 million by the time its out of theaters. What makes The Hangover all the more impressive as a moneymaker is that it was made on the cheap–by Hollywood standards–for a mere $35 million.

  via A Hollywood-Ending Portfolio – Forbes.com.

  At this point last year, Iron Man had already crossed the $300 million mark, with Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull closing in. A 2009 movie of this genre–most likely Transformers–may not break the $300 million threshold until mid-July.

  But 2009 may still eclipse 2008’s total revenue and take the crown as the highest-grossing year at the box office. One executive at Time Warner cited a “diverse film slate” for Warner’s success in particular, pointing to its investment in both large and small films.

  James Marsh, senior research analyst at Piper Jaffray ( PJC – news – people ), was bullish on the sector though he mentioned that not all studios are created equal. “I think the guys that have the most exposure to theatrical [releases] seem to be holding up well,” he said. This, he pointed out, worked in favor of smaller companies.

  Though small- and medium-budget films don’t necessarily have the built-in audience recognition of a Batman or Star Wars franchise, their profits are still very realistic. The Proposal, only two weeks into its run, has out-grossed Land of the Lost, a film that cost more than twice as much to produce and had the kitsch value of a campy canceled TV series behind it.

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• Indian Market Tweets @zyakaira for Friday, June 19
  June 19, 2009 | 6:00 am

  PVR raising another tranche of Private Equity while profit making ventures hold back _TYY4

  Hotels begin to fill up again as Indians settle for domestic holidays _TYY4(ftags)
  less than 20 seconds ago from TweetDeck

  Govt not to allow offshore SPVs so easily _TYY4
  1 minute ago from TweetDeck

  Vipul Shah’s London Dreams, Akshay’s Blue and Aamir’s 3 Idiots are pitching for $27 million but no buyers – No UTVi, Eros or Studio 18 _TYY4
  2 minutes ago from TweetDeck

  Ghazini was bought for $20 m, Wellcome for $10 million by Studio 18, Singh is Kingg also for $13 million _TYY4
  6 minutes ago from TweetDeck

  PVR, Mahindra Holidays coming out with IPOs _TYY4
  7 minutes ago from TweetDeck

  Innovative reopens in Bangalore _TYY4
  7 minutes ago from TweetDeck

  Bollywood dumping big budget movies because of the industry rift/slowdown _TYY4
  8 minutes ago from TweetDeck

  Hyderabad Metro has finally decided Maytas cannot execute the 12000-crore rupees project #Indian #Stocks _TYY4
  9 minutes ago from TweetDeck

  B’lore promo #1: Fast Social media updates leave you dizzy? Feel priceless about it with the New Nokia N97.. http://tr.im/twiN97 <<<Call us
  about 1 hour ago from web

  Market trend unlikely to improve. Time for value buying #Indian #Stocks Spend time at http://bit.ly/ESXFE for an insider view of the budget
  about 2 hours ago from CoTweet

  RT @zyaada Check @blrmoneytalkz for Investments #Indian #Stocks #GDOW and @urban_mash for city and lifestyle chatter
  about 2 hours ago from CoTweet

  Is Retail going to bounce back? http://bit.ly/5943b (We are at http://advantages.us)
  about 2 hours ago from CoTweet

  Market trend unlikely to improve. Good time for value buying
  about 2 hours ago from CoTweet

  B'lore promo #1: Fast Social media updates leave you dizzy? Feel priceless about it with the New Nokia N97.. http://tr.im/twiN97 <<<Call us
  about 2 hours ago from web

  $FXE Euro likely to reverse trend now and start back to 1.45
  about 2 hours ago from CoTweet

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• Gen X recommends new upcoming corporate houses in Bollywood
  June 8, 2009 | 5:05 pm

  The global credit crisis has hit the Indian entertainment industry as well, contrary to the popular opinion and consensus that entertainment and gaming industry are actually recession proof. And now an interesting theme is emerging out of all this in Bollywood.

  After getting the industry status in 1998, Bollywood saw some big corporate houses(Reliance ventured in to Adlabs, Big Pictures, Big Music etc) taking some serious interest in this industry and a host of production companies(PNC, Percept Pictures, Excel Entertainment, Sahara) and distributors came into existence. As a result the industry saw a structural shift, giving rise to companies that could now produce more films in a year, could distribute them on their own and making good margins. This lifted Bollywood out of the shambles that it was in just decade ago. The effect being that Hollywood studios like Disney, Pixar, Fox want to co-produce, and invest in Indian cinema. This will automatically lead to increase in overseas sales which currently contribute roughly 10% of the total revenues.

  Bollywood has also grown in size as the producers don’t need to depend on theatrical releases alone in order to recover their investment. Home videos and satellite rights were also contributing significantly to their top and bottom lines.

  The studio model and an idea of having a production house was pioneered by none other than Yash Chopra himself, the biggest name in Indian cinema who has given some memorable movies like Chandni, Silsila, Kabhi kabhi etc. However, the recent years haven’t been very profitable for the company. With a host of films like Tashan, Tara Rum Pum, Kabul Express, Roadside Romeo(animated movie,co-produced by Walt Disney), Thoda Pyaar Thodi Magic all failed to perform well at the box office even after having A-list actors in their kitty for every project. The only projects that did well at the box office were noth SRK starrer ‘Chak De India’ and ‘Rab ne bana di jodi’.

  YRF seems to be in serious trouble now. They recently laid-off 20 people; apparently they were executive producers. They are also stepping back from the distribution business now, as they are now turning extremely risk-averse. Due to this, Karan Johar(owner of Dharma Productions)who literally admires Yash Chopra’s work and contribution to cinema and is a close family friend, had to find new distributors(UTV Software Communications) for his upcoming releases Ranbir Kapoor starrer ‘Wake up Sid’ and Multi-starrer film ‘New York’. KJo managed to sell both his movies for a whopping Rs 78 cr.

  But in my opinion the biggest cause of YRF’s troubles is not recession(which came in only later) but bad choice of scripts and high cost of production. They also marketed the product in a wrong way, projecting an image of something which was not the true essence of the movie, like Tashan. I guess they did take risks by giving chances to new directors and script-writers but they failed to execute things well. Some of the bets paid off well like Chak De India. But we all know that a company can’t depend on 2-3 break out successes. They have to be consistent in performance and have to market the product for what it is. And these days the ‘word of mouth’ travels 10x faster than before, Therefore a bad movie will die out more rapidly, with box office collections falling sharply in a couple of days time, with bad reviews floating all the over the internet with blogs and discussions dissecting the movie and performances, as opposed to a week’s time earlier on.

  I see a leader emerging out of all this chaos though. Progressing gradually and carefully, UTV Software Communications(listed in AIM/BSE in 2005) is now one of the biggest names in the industry challenging established players in scale and box office success across different genres and budgets. They gave a bunch of hits in 2008, like Fashion, Oye Lucky Lucky Oye, Jodha Akbar and Race. Although Race and JA contributed 30% to the kitty, the company’s business model is to produce a mixed range of films, including small and big budget movies, signing the best talent and bringing efficiency in production costs.

  UTV seems to be diversifying their portfolio of movies/IPRs pretty well, producing movies on new and old themes in order to cater to the tastes of diverse and demanding Indian audiences. They are actually carving out a niche for themselves, where people have started associating quality with their name. Although recession has hit them equally, they are not going to scale back this year. They are actually hoping to see some rationalization is their cost structure, which seems difficult, as bulk of the costs are ‘Star Costs’. If they manage to get that correction, then probably they could also get a better ROI(Return on Investment). I guess another big chunk of expenditure is marketing costs, and this has actually increased as a % of total budget of the movie, because pictures are promoted as brands these days and hence involve more investments in marketing them.
  In 2008 they produced 10 movies, and this year the pipeline contains 15-16 odd films. The next big one I am really waiting for is Vishal Bharadwaj’s Kaminey starring Shahid Kapoor and Priyanka Chopra expected sometime in June 2009.

  As a result of the economic slowdown, I can see a serious shift towards good content, efficient capital allocation and correction in star prices(Akshay Kumar charged Rs 20 cr for Tasveer, and it grossed Rs 16cr at the box office)which was making it difficult to recover costs most of the times. I guess only the strongest and the most versatile can weather this storm and one day an Indian movie produced, directed, distributed and performed by Indian artists, based on an Indian subject would get an Oscar.

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• Reliance ADA – Life Insurance worth 12000 crore
  June 8, 2009 | 5:16 am

  Reliance Capital who stock is almost up by more than 45 percent in just 4 trading session has informed that its looking to divest up to 26 percent in its insurance arm Reliance Life Insurance through an IPO as well as by inducting a strategic investor. Reliance Capital holds 100% in Reliance Life Insurance. Reliance Life Insurance would be valued well in excess of Rs 12,000 crore and they will have more clear picture on it in another 3 to 4 months.
  Reliance Life insurance is considered to be 4th strongest in line next to ICICI, SBI Life and Bajaj Allianz. They have almost more than 10 percent share in the indian insurance market.
   via <a href=’www.rupya.com’>Rupya</a>

  zyakaira notes: The 3-4 insurance IPOs including ICICI Bank IPO for separating capital structures and governance would themselves bring companies with a valuation of INR 120000 Crores or around $25 Billion to the listed markets at BSE and NSE. Along with the PSUs and Infra stocks we may be adding market cap equivalent to India’s GDP in these 1-2 years and raising more than $10 billion from the markets

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• Reliance ADA to launch film/TV outsourcing unit | FT.com
  June 7, 2009 | 3:13 pm

  Adlabs Films, India’s largest multiplex chain, controlled by billionaire industrialist Anil Ambani, is launching one of the country’s biggest outsourcing businesses to service the global movie and television industries.

  The new unit will digitise films and television shows from clients’ archives or libraries, restore old prints and adapt content for use in different formats, such as DVDs or mobile phones.

  Its first contract is from the state-run National Film Archive of India in Pune to digitise and restore 1,000 films.

  “One [area of work] is the old legacy content, which has to be converted into digital, including all these studio classics – Paramount, Mickey Mouse and all of that – and then there is all of the television content,” said Anil Arjun, chief executive officer of Adlabs.

  Mr Ambani’s Reliance group is not the first Indian company to target media outsourcing, but it claims to be the largest effort yet attempted, with a dedicated workforce starting at 300 people and scaling up to 1,200 in one year.

  The company says India’s competitive advantage is outsourcers’ ability to build quickly the scale necessary for large projects, such as the contract from the National Film Archive of India.

  Adlabs operates 430 multiplexes in India, the US and Malaysia and has a film and media services unit specialising in post-production and processing among other things.

  The company is a unit of Mr Ambani’s Reliance ADAG group, which also has a tie-up with Stephen Spielberg’s DreamWorks. It argues that its 25-year history in the film industry will enable it to trump competition from existing operators that are more experienced in outsourcing.

  These include a joint venture between outsourcing company Genpact and media group NDTV, and a separate tie-up between another conventional outsourcing group Infosys BPO and TV 18, a media conglomerate.

  The joint venture between Infosys and TV 18, Source18, does not have a dedicated team for media outsourcing but instead assembles teams as necessary when contracts come in.

  via FT.com / India.

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