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The October MF report | Advantage zyaada

The Data is courtesy http://amfiindia.com (AMFI)

October turned out to be buoyant for the entire economy with retail and auto sectors reporting a 30% + uptick in sales and mutual funds also adding a neat INR 20000 Crores or $4.33 billion.

However individual fortunes were mixed as some fund houses managed to lose in Assets under management in the cracker season. UTI MF grew further by INR 3260 Crores or $720 million, and even Tata MF growing by INR 2500 Crores or $550 million. A small player like Kotak grew its corpus by INR 1350 Crores or $ 300 million. It is definitely a market whose time has come.

However Religare lost over 350 crores in AUM in the festive celebrations as it also withdrew from its AIG The newer giant Reliance at INR 116782 Crores also reported a reduction of INR 2000 crores and the growth is favoring the progressive biggies with a good corporate governance score. ICICI Prudential kept losing custom with markets withdrawing their favor after the recent turmoil in its ranks losing a miniscule but significant INR 400 crores, while its larger rival HDFC MF has taken its market share up to 12.23% growing to INR 93.300 Crores

The only other significant player in the Birla Sun Life MF grew rapidly by INR 2000 crores with the AUM of INR 65.500 crores reflecting a market share of 8.5% Ajay as head of the Financial Services business for the group has recently appeared in a a few network interviews to beef up these gains and reiterate BSL’s plan and vision in the upcoming wealth explosion in India. Fidelity MF remained between ICICI and HDFC in the rankings with INR 87000 crores or $19 billion without reporting any close ended schemes in October

UTI MF grew best in its Income funds with INR 5000 Crores adding in its Treasury Advantage plan and HDFC has grown its best performing Prudence ( Balanced ) and Top 200 ( Equity , medium risk ) schemes among others

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What China might learn from India | Advantage zyaada

A First rough draft 

I hate writing influencing stuff for these ‘namakool’ government people..a true laissez faire capitalist as bollywood would say today – but much as I like to disappoint wooden leg intelligentia (sorry Saugata, not you) and unfortunate colleagues who cannot see the depth and incisiveness of my decisions ( only some times, as most of my followers and poachers would attest from the last 15-20 years, i have quite some intellectual property when it comes to establishing the kingdom’s fine traits and setting up the next wins. 

Well, this introduction is probably embedded into my names and branding choices as also in the discussions I have created across all Advantage zyaada properties, and while everyone has decided that the worst is past and we have recovered, the stock markets have finally got the cue,albeit from continuing discussions of interest rate when none are necessary unless a bank offers a loan.

China and India share a $2.5 trillion retail spending of a gross GDP of $3.5 trillion (Economic Times, It’s cold out in the west   ). While single brand FDI was raised earlier to 51% whatever was allowed in multi-brand retail has now been withdrawn due to recent changes in FDI definition and no move to allow multi-product retail.  Our reticence to allow Indian business property in retail spending to Foreign investors stems from the fact that we wish to be paid for allowing such to happen like for the Telecom Licences and paid so we don’t have that damned Fiscal Deficit overhang but that is just a digression here and it is definitely not ideology we are peddling.

Also, despite the caution adopted by RBI in not moving the GDP target ( 6% w/ upward bias ) I am reasonably confident that the growth rate would be between 7.5% – 8% with the IIP having recovered and there being only some agrarian doubts in the nation’s performance which would well be taken care of by the food inflation incl. grain procurement prices. In the mean time, China allowed banks to fund the corporates $1 trillion indiscriminately and now will provision at leisure; India mid-way through its own $120 billion borrowing program

Making fiscal policy – Dividing work with the RBI ( MOF, Economic Advisory Committee)

Some of my better endowed readers who are also leader of men would appreciate that it is always tough to appreciate the RBI or the FED if you are in the US and ‘get’ the inner depths of what is happening, what is doable, what is to be said and what is to be communicated to which stakeholders all at the same time..that is why probably Duvoori Rao had no qualms in handing over the tough job to the ‘center’ or in this case the Economic Advisory Committee and Mr Rangarajan.

Making Policy Count – Avoid being Abrasive

Let’s not forget that the RBI is doing a good job yet. With the Aussies having raised interest rates, it might have tempted lesser mortals to go in for rate increases right away, but we have just decided to raise the eponymous SLR a full basis point as banks continue to sidestep economics and lenders in each breath. The most laudable and really India thought centric piece of the policy was the important 150% ramp up in the provisioning of real estate loans to 1% of LTV carried on the books. It is a good reminder to banks that the costs of idle money will go up on both the treasuries and cash they keep ( a huge 35% in most banks, more for Citi) when the statutory rates even now are just 30%. In fact costs will also go up on the RE portfolio they are so eager to cultivate by a good 70-80 basis points, after all the entire provisioning concept for banks is based on being able to sell their collateral in case of default :)

Following up

However, next quarter we are suddenly going to get a flurry of results which proclaim greater volumes, no one will talk of pricing constraints, FDI will flow smoothly and I might just get time to read Ranga’s economics to take this slow elephant further. And that is how sand castles are blown away and not made into glass, nor kept for posterity. A mixed metaphor, maybe? But it is clearer now that the RBI is just battling select ‘investor guarantee’ holding bank companies that have never advanced adequate resources ( neither people, nor journalists, nor the money) to India as they reinvent the new way to leverage their own and their host nations ( i almost sound socialist there, but i am laying out the real hidden map where I share economic prowess in predicting the next turn and getting done with the rest of influenza to focus on earning real moolah in a real job / business)

But the credit policy for the Indian markets..

Coming back to the policy, it is a non starter, because it is a tired ramification of pending business like flowing credit and reforms undone by a crisis. The banks are prudent enough to lend only to profit making businesses and the governments are out of money to print at the mint, The government will continue to be the biggest borrowing program, the agrarians will suffer as rabi prices rise and production drops off,  the corporates will bide time as India’s holiday season is past though the stats are still due, and the RBI is not handling the fun, neither the EAC by admitting to any innovation. In my eyes, that will slow up this pack of hounds till ( probably just next week, probably just good news) some great FDI and energy releasing decisions come through. 

The next RBI ride will last the six months it can raise rates, but finally we have to start signing some good deals and get business done. Simple innovations like co-opting banks in the policy making and making obvious your support of public sector banks with larger balance sheets have to be reflecive of the new media and the new pace of competition where everyone is now ready to drive home their point to their investors and their stakeholders.

 

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ING gets to make a profit, Buyer Beware?

The Discussion on Citi, BofA results, GS bonuses and JPM’s growth is scheduled on the same Diwali weekend as well..

The ING Sale: Will OCBC grow into a larger Pan Asian role?

ING has sold the Asian private banking business to OCBC, which was having difficulty in growing in Asia but has made rapid strides in expanding in KL and can now focus again on Singapore. The $1.46 billion price ( Sing $ 2 billion) for assets that are not growing is based on the assumed scalability of the asset base of $15-16 billion. The unit was costed for $1 billion for the bank in its balance sheet. The N11 will thus provide a second chance to OCBC to grow.

OCBC has a healthy 60-40 split of interest and non interest income from its current assets ( economic assets or people assets in the case of fee based income) and as expected Q2 income went down with decrease in advisory and other fee based income to S$ 466mn or USD 335 million ( EUR 221 m). Also, interestingly OCBC currently has one of the most healthy cost-income ratios of 34% which can equip it with the necessary depth in absorbing any new costs and continue during the lean times where larger competition from US/Europe/India apart from JPM and GS is unlikely to withstand the current cost of business.

However its Private Banking acquisition may well add to its woes in the region as it has failed to grow beyond Malaysia and Singapore and PB assets may be offshore banking assets domiciled in these other ASEAN countries and even India. OCBC currently earns only 20% of its bank profits or $77 million from Consumer Financial Services where it has been hiding its Private Banking assets presumably. Even in that, as much as $ 10 million is from Islamic Banking in Malaysia (Bank Negara) The transaction adds just about $20 million to OCBC profits and margins may reduce further. However, it looks as if these assets would be lazy and no flight of assets to other competition in the region will ensue whether SocGen or Deutsche Bank

At this stage let me also reiterate that it is important to know that the final price is closer to the author’s estimation for this deal as well as the UBS captive sale, the Satyam sale , the AIG Investments sale, except for the Nan Shan Insurance unit for Life Insurance, Valuation premium is no longer for the selling brand ( Citi BPO assets for over $505 million just a year back) but for real business and real value delivered to the acquirer..The bear phase as always is a euphemism for the opportunity to deliver justice to buyers of economic value over noise)

Fortunately, Julius Baer is happy with its progress in Swiss assets from the acquisition as the Swiss pie is a little more localised and protected by Swiss banking law and does not expose the niche bank to new ( see ING sells Private Banking assets) Julius Baer has paid a half a billion dollars for the Swiss Assets

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A leg of Tweets – Holiday season, Dow 10K, JPM results.. | gyancafe

Funding new infrastructure..a global imperative The new USA with new infrastructure « Obamanomics http://bit.ly/3kSJ2k
about 3 hours ago from HootSuite

Apple is not going to ruffle anyone as Windows 7 brings $MSFT back into the game (by the by, just to wake up your senses before dinner ..)
about 5 hours ago from HootSuite

Two-thirds of Superbowl AD inventory was sold/booked even before Week 1 of NFL..and there is six more months for the “new” network CBS
about 6 hours ago from HootSuite

Dow 10K definitely took its time coming! G’night all
about 13 hours ago from HootSuite

Gas sales ( At pump) down 25% from last year ( US, September 2009)
about 16 hours ago from HootSuite

car sales dropped 10% in september “After Clunkers” shock, October shd indicate holiday season
about 16 hours ago from HootSuite

$GLD up above $107..can it cross $115?
about 16 hours ago from HootSuite

Why is $CI getting such a great buy rating? One can’t believe the industry’s whitepaper of all things! The fool’s in goop http://ow.ly/un4a
about 16 hours ago from HootSuite

I am not so sure I got any follow up report of InBev’s amusement parks’ sale? A $2 billion business..
about 16 hours ago from HootSuite
Goldman Sachs $GS scored pretty much lower in Securities services and investment banking income in June ..a start of a bad trend? #Q3results
about 16 hours ago from HootSuite
The 0.9 t Balance sheet of GS could easily grow to $1.5 t by tonight :) as 713 billion is just investments with MTM 2b upped after reval !!!
about 18 hours ago from HootSuite
Will $GS follow $JPM into the emerging markets, and expand globally? $GS earnings could far exceed expectations of $4.24, JPM likewise
about 18 hours ago from HootSuite
$JPM Treasury and Custody Portfolio of $16 trillion likely to grow along with fee services of investment bank.. Buy to USD 60-65 in 2009
about 19 hours ago from HootSuite
And after receiving the Nobel Peace Prize! RT @barackobama humbled.
about 19 hours ago from HootSuite
Sign here! RT @barackobama Health reform just took a huge step—but the insurance lobby is.. Urge Congress to pass reform: http://u.nu/6jhi3
about 19 hours ago from HootSuite
$JPM reports restructuring with Jes Staley taking over as CEO at the $1.9 billion richer investment bank, Mary C Erdoes takes over at AMC
about 20 hours ago from HootSuite
$JPM reported a further $2 billion added to loan reserves and $3.7 billion in extra charge offs in retail, Credit card losses of $700 m
about 20 hours ago from HootSuite
$JPM and $GS results of $3 billion profit may look very different if unrealised gains on their fixed income portfolio are not included
about 20 hours ago from HootSuite

$OIL at $75 looks precarious, $FXE looks well done at 1.50 Can equity look subdued after the banks have published “rosy results”?
about 20 hours ago from HootSuite

If the Chargers win today, they will likely meet the Blues for the next KITA motivation #clt20
about 20 hours ago from HootSuite

Welcome @hotshotsin to the Advantage zyaada fold @zyakaira @zyaada
8:13 AM Oct 14th from web

Gyancafe follows http://advantages.us/brands for updates on Sports Marketing, IPL and social media #clt20
7:48 AM Oct 14th from HootSuite

By @zyakaira Cape Cobras meet Victoria Bushrangers in the Super League Kickoff #CLT20 Sad day for Wayamba and Sussex #clt20
7:48 AM Oct 14th from HootSuite

By @boutred :ask for analysis CIT debt swap struggles, bankruptcy looms: NEW YORK (Reuters) – CIT .. http://bit.ly/9hApR @zyaada
7:47 AM Oct 14th from HootSuite

Wonder how soon we can extend the IPL club brands to Cape Cobras and the Sydney Blues ( sponsor the SA/CA teams) #CLT20 #ipl

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BNP closes out the French Till | DealBook

BNP Paribas, the largest French bank, said on Tuesday that it would raise €4.3 billion from investors to repay government bailout funds, The New York Times’s David Jolly and Chris V. Nicholson reported.BNP Paribas, based in Paris, said its board had decided to repay, within the next month, the €5.1 billion, or $7.5 billion, it borrowed from the state March 31. The government would also receive a payout of €226 million on the nonvoting preferred shares it purchased.Baudouin Prot, BNP Paribas’s chief executive, said in a conference call that the G20 meeting in last week in Pittsburgh, where world leaders agreed in principle that banks should raise more capital, had influenced the timing of BNP’s decision to issue shares, as had the lender’s share price, which is up more than 92 percent this year.Christophe Nijdem, a banking analyst at Alphavalue in Paris, called the stock issue’s timing “judicious.”“They had a window of opportunity,” he said. “A lot of banks will turn to the market in the months to come, and it’s first come, first serve.”Mr. Nijdem added that, compared to American banks, European banks were more leveraged, and had to play catch up. Major Western banks are forecast to post losses of almost $2.5 trillion for the period 2007-2010, according to the International Monetary Fund.

via BNP Paribas to Raise $6.27 Billion to Repay Bailout – DealBook Blog – NYTimes.com.

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Will the French dominate post crisis? | Advantage ‘zyaada’ Dealbook

The French BNP and the Barclays’ have definitely come out on top post-crisis and given parochial attitudes in both nations, their governments are likely to plan making heavy weather on the bad financial markets industry..but I wouldn’t say these repayments signify any better practices on the part of these wannabe practitioners on the global horizon, but rather the fact that they were bystanders during the banking explosion of the last decade.

They do maintain a continued conservative stance which will come in useful, but given the history of the markets..they are much more likely to be the source of the next big black hole in a few days (years) maybe. However, with Citi planning to get out of government stakes as well, this could really absorb the prior decades’ sentiments some more and yet faster..leaving us with a blank slate in which to regulate our childrens’ future.

Coming back to the French, they do not have the depth in their markets to fund expansion and their global diaspora in terms of expansion by SocGen and BNP hardly enough to give them currency to support their non US pro Iran , pro Russia stance. They could however be the closest Euro member state for the new nations in East Europe that have been trying to get a piece of the global economics in this last decade as also they could substantially support some African nations. Being pragmatic however, they are likely to discover faster that they really do not want significant exposure in these markets

BNP recently paid $19.8 billion for Fortis (October 2008) and has therefore significantly completed its footprint in West Europe while SocGen has been active in Asia ( Offshore from Singapore, JVs with SBI in India)

China has had a long history with European Banks with the Deutsche Asiatique Bank, British Belgian Industrial Bank of China and the Sino Belgian Bank which issued Taels (North Asian currency) during Siberian-Japanese-Chinese trade ‘wars’ of the late 19th century but has never been remunerative for Foreign bank ( Comparitively with India, Chinese have very few branches and investment assets in Foreign banks)

However, as of March 2009 Bank of china had already purchased 20% in the Paris based Banque de Rothschild and with BNP out of government indebtedness, its reasons for going into China would be more mercantile than ever.

BNP Paribas, the largest French bank, said on Tuesday that it would raise €4.3 billion from investors to repay government bailout funds, The New York Times’s David Jolly and Chris V. Nicholson reported.

BNP Paribas, based in Paris, said its board had decided to repay, within the next month, the €5.1 billion, or $7.5 billion, it borrowed from the state March 31. The government would also receive a payout of €226 million on the nonvoting preferred shares it purchased.

Baudouin Prot, BNP Paribas’s chief executive, said in a conference call that the G20 meeting in last week in Pittsburgh, where world leaders agreed in principle that banks should raise more capital, had influenced the timing of BNP’s decision to issue shares, as had the lender’s share price, which is up more than 92 percent this year.

Christophe Nijdem, a banking analyst at Alphavalue in Paris, called the stock issue’s timing “judicious.”

“They had a window of opportunity,” he said. “A lot of banks will turn to the market in the months to come, and it’s first come, first serve.”

Mr. Nijdem added that, compared to American banks, European banks were more leveraged, and had to play catch up. Major Western banks are forecast to post losses of almost $2.5 trillion for the period 2007-2010, according to the International Monetary Fund.

via BNP Paribas to Raise $6.27 Billion to Repay Bailout – DealBook Blog – NYTimes.com.

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Valuations! Valuations!

Three sales canceled, carried over, increased stakes and quick QIPs instead of IPOs, no one’s playing to the basement anymore..Wanted to sell, couldn’t get my price so bought some more. Whacky, emulating personal shopping habits of people more than corporate board tussles of the 1990s.

KKR now owns 80% of Aricent (79), WNS will still have Warburg and Axis bank is happy with $720 million where it could have easily absorbed another tranche of the same amount. And this is in the faster growing market of India that we have these white elephants.

In fact the 2007 majority view of these all private equity investments and tinny tiny private sector banks being as unproductive as the public sector white elephants may still be true. However, all these three companies should have spiffy new management in place soon.

KKR, CPP Investment Buy Flextronics’ Pie In Aricent For $255M

- TEAM VCC

Global private equity biggie Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. has increased its investment in Aricent, following the completion of an agreement between KKR and CPP Investment Board with Flextronics to purchase certain securities. The transaction, valued at $255 million, closed on September 16, 2009.

WNS Halts Talks On Majority Stake Sale

- MADHAV A CHANCHANI

Outsourcing firm WNS (Holdings) Ltd has said that it will not pursue any further talks regarding the sale of majoity stake in the firm. Private equity major Warburg Pincus, which holds over 50% stake in the NYSE-listed firm, had put its stake on the block and was in discussion with other PE players and outsourcing firms.

Axis Bank Raises $720 Mn Via QIP, GDR

- MADHAV A CHANCHANI

The Indian QIP party, which kicked off with the real estate sector, has now assumed a diverse flavour. Private sector lender Axis Bank has raised $720 million throught its QIP (qualified institutional placement) and GDR (global depository reciepts) issue.

via

via VC Circle

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Defining the new YES Bank

Finally, the cat is out of the bag. Yes Bank albeit a little late or cautious, has decided to step into the Institutional market. It will be asking investors to pick up a $250m QIP stake to shore up its capital. In the meantime, as reported earlier, they have also put on hold their diversification and market development plans on the board for the last 2 years now as they get into some serious consolidation in its core banking business. They have a good sleeping brand and their recent cost cutting efforts would also bear fruit. However, their focus on SME business might change now as the current ticket size is very unremunerative for them. There was some recent murmur when Rabobank announced its plans to enter the country directly, but that is a non-starter since Yes Bank would not go for the stake sale by Rabobank without making sure the house is in order as a deeper recession is equally likely in the next 12 months.

Yes would need a little serious selling with big ticket business while continuing to present simple and generous options for retail and SME customers. Their non presence in asset management and broking would hardly raise any eyebrows as the business entirely survives on institutional volumes and even a Kotakstreet and a sharekhan are essentially struggling with their current “low” period.
I wonder how any bank with a brand like Yes can today crack open the expat market which has a few relatively unknown niche players ( Geojit, recently acquired by HSBC) It would need key leadership experience to realise a valid entry point. One option however, at the barest minimum requirement, is to go for a PSB or a local bank in UK and Australia or the Middle east. That requires capital but any other option leaves you with a performance like ICICI Bank which has managed only rep offices in all its overseas expansion and have not been able to generate the required trust without a retail presence on the ground, leaving the field seemingly open for players like ING and HSBC.
Regulatory level liaison with developed markets would sadly continue to maintain the respectable disconnect that exists as emerging markets can barely acknowledge their requirements of the day as they are seemingly extended to the rest of the world. It remains to be seen if that home brewn recipee of the Basel and BoE would ever land in some drifting current and be taken care of. A way must be found for India to spare the cash and show their value in the developed world and invest in these international markets before much more will come out to bear on market shares of all the players. This is not to belittle current efforts from either side but I didn’t see it on the agenda in these last few years at work. It is never too late to start?
The scrip remains a good buy in Indian exchanges and I look forward to even more QIP issuance from YES Bank.

Posted via email from The investment blog on Post

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Rejuvenating Banking after the crash of '08

I wonder how any bank with a brand like Yes or Kotak can today crack open the expat market which has a few relatively unknown niche players ( Geojit, recently acquired by HSBC) It would need key leadership experience to realise a valid entry point. One option however, at the barest minimum requirement, is to go for a PSB or a local bank in UK and Australia or the Middle east. That requires capital but any other option leaves you with a performance like ICICI Bank which has managed only rep offices in all its overseas expansion and have not been able to generate the required trust without a retail presence on the ground, leaving the field seemingly open for players like ING and HSBC. They do have some presence now in London.
 
Regulatory level liaison with developed markets would sadly continue to maintain the respectable disconnect that exists as emerging markets can barely acknowledge their requirements of the day as they are seamlessly extended to the rest of the world. It remains to be seen if that home brewn recipe of the Basel and BoE would ever land in some drifting current and be taken care of. A way must be found for India to spare the cash and show their value in the developed world and invest in these international markets before much more will come out to bear on market shares of all the players. This is not to belittle current efforts from either side but I didn’t see it on the agenda in these last few years at work. It is never too late to start?
 
All the PSB scrips remains a good buy in Indian exchanges and I look forward to even more QIP issuance from YES Bank. But sooner than later the investing denizens will realize our SME status in the global market and unlike China, here Private Enterprise is free to make its own market rules, which is not something we have made good use of till now.
 
The other priority and now a key priority is of course our spreading into the hinterland as we strengthen distribution and support the microcredit revolution and the farmers. This spread would require immediate action by the banks as the government has al but given the keys to the treasury for the banks to lend and spend and while Corporate credit may be lukewarm, the hinterland beckons.
 
Last but not the least, the banks are key to the Indian consumer treasure now that it is all about lifestyle and disposable spending. While unsecured credit would not be remunerative, as we cannot go beyond the current systemized and sometimes too painfully detailed back office ops required to support the credit.
 
As a banker I probably wonder why the boom did not last, but then nothing lasts forever and as far as emerging markets are concerned , it remains a s good as it gets as Class B towns and Metros keep growing incessantly and people continue to spend on retail, lifestyle and entertainment. Infrastructure financing will attract the big bucks and the retail lifestyle spending will grow as fast as ever within the next 12 months, the magic being in access and prompt delivery by the banks.
 
Predictions: Interest rates are headed lower and Treasuries are going to be fatter and richer but still incomparable to the riches in the global markets
 
[Category India]
[Tags India infrastructure, Banking, Bank stocks, Wealth, Retail Lifestyle, Amitonomics, Lifestyle Economy, India, Economy, Finance]
 
Amit Mittal
mittalster@gmail.com
 
Amit Mittal
Mob: 919972442877
amit.mittal@me.com
MD, Advantage Research Pvt Ltd
@Innovative Film City, Bidadi 562109
On the web Advantage ‘zyaada’ http://advantages.us/zya
http://astore.amazon.com/mmmzyaada-20

Posted via email from The investment blog on Post

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SBI and PNB results

PNB has just been upgraded by JP Morgan to a price target of 850 ..

State Bank of India and Punjab National Bank both effectively proved size does matter. Their growth absorbed a growth in deposit rates ( 38% for SBI) effectively absorbing the stimulus and passing on rates by RBI unlike their MNC and private bank counterparts that have ‘managed’ their deposit rate cost by instantly cutting rates early and then keeping credit down, almost artificially probably as they waited to be sold off for pennies by the head offices. I am almost sad and apologetic at sounding like a parochial small trader / farmer but the facts on ground are now out for everyone to see.

 State Bank of India’s quarterly profits grew 42% and restructured loans upwards of Rs 11000 Crs in time. While ICICI plans a paltry Rs 1500 Cr restructuring while NPAs kept rising at the private sector banks and are expected to rise further into the 3%+ zone, PNB and SBI NPAs are controlled and have fallen consequent to the restructuring. SBI has also managed to attract huge deposits in this period reflecting higher confidence in the behemoth ( also true for PNB) while Income from advances has grown at a lower 23%. Net Interest Income had earlier grown in FY09 to Rs 17000 CR ( USD $3.4 billion) while Consolidated Net Income climbed by 33% to INR 23000 Crs ( $460 million – $480 million at current FX rate ) beating the Bloomberg survey by 20%

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Stock Quotes

DJIA10765.94  chart+32.27
NASDAQ2389.40  chart+0.31
S&P 5001164.02  chart-2.19
^TWII7886.34  chart+38.50
^AORD4877.70  chart+0.00
EEM41.68  chart-0.37
PGX14.07  chart+0.00
PBR46.16  chart-0.69
KKE0.00  chart+0.00
YESBANK.NS249.55  chart+3.60
PFE17.20  chart-0.01
HDB129.08  chart-2.15
RECLTD.NS250.45  chart+6.15
HBC52.15  chart-0.82
ADBE35.81  chart+0.32
2010-03-18 14:08

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  • After AOL Warner, the new megalith?
    December 4, 2009 | 2:06 am

    Can conventional media survive yet?

    COMCAST BUYS NBC UNIVERSAL

    General Electric And Vivendi Come To Tentative Agreement On NBC's Value

    The proposed $30-billion transaction is the fruition of a longtime ambition by Comcast’s 50-year-old chief executive, Brian Roberts, to recast his family-controlled Philadelphia company into a leading producer of movies and television shows and a purveyor of prominent cable and broadcast networks, including the venerable NBC.

    Under terms of the deal, Comcast will contribute its entertainment channels, including E and Versus; nine regional sports networks; and about $6.5 billion in cash in exchange for 51% of the new venture, which will continue to be called NBC Universal for the immediate future.

    The deal underscores how cable television — not a broadcast network or a Hollywood movie studio — has become the new profit center for media conglomerates.

    GE, which has owned the NBC network for 23 years, will reduce its ownership in the company to 49%. The deal sets up GE for a gradual exit from the entertainment business, granting Comcast the right to buy out GE’s interest within eight years. GE placed a value of $30 billion on its NBC Universal businesses.

    via Comcast deals to get GE out of NBC

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  • India's new boom – Infrastructure, Lifestyle and Entertainment
    July 16, 2009 | 5:36 am
    If you have been following the India story closely, India’s new developments are focussed on Infrastructure and Retail along with giant leaps in the Entertainment business. You can look closely at the India stories at http://advantages.us/inframils to get a flavor of what’s happening.

    ADA Reliance (BIG entertainment) has today announced details of its venture with Dreamworks (Steven Spielberg) planning a 40% stake in the final entity capitalised at approx $830 million ($1b at USD rate of Rs. 40) with Disney holding another 15%. The Company holds a target of producing 5-6 films a year. BIG already has agreements with Nicholas Cage’s Saturn, Jim Carrey’s JC23, George Clooney’s Smokehouse, Chris Columbus’s 1492 Pictures, Tom Hank’s Playtone and Brad Pitt’s Plan B among others

    On the other hand Retail Lifestyle businesses are increasingly attracting investors with Rabobank’s India Agribusiness Fund picking up a 25% stake in Kishore Biyani’s Aadhaar Retail. Modern retailing businesses in India are predominantly located in cities with FDI restrictions except for Cash & Carry Businesses (100%) and Single Brand retail (51%) Rural Markets may grow at a faster pace at least on the Drawing board. One such project which extends Bangalore’s urban footprint to Bidadi is the Innovative Film City which also showcases the marriage of the rural and the urban as Bangalore expands to the West and the East and remains the fastest growing City in India. The problems on the ground remain. While the new real estate projects are trying to make a strong statement, the depression blues have not gone anywhere. In the showcased retail fund in ET today, for example, apart from Rabo Bank, the other investors are the usual suspects, IFC Washington a couple of /developed/semi developed state development bank(s) and institutions and select private investors. Where is Investor access? Why is it still on the government to make it happen? The FDI limits and the others are fairly rational policies..but where are the investors? Why are global investors so selective about projects? What does it take for them to find out ground realities and put it in the appropriate framework? At the end of the day India’s share in the Emerging Markets Indices is just 5% and emerging Markets worldwide probably get less than 20% of the global capital flows. One Federal Stimulus by Obama will be enough to keep US bankrupt for the next decade. I am not sure we are doing this right.
    Nanos will roll into homes by July end and IPL teams are already applying for trademarks as it looks set to become the greatest sporting extravaganza in the world, already ranked at #2 behind the NFL season in the USA. The 3G challenge will tear at Telecom companies’ profits in the coming years ( MTNL has managed 1000 subscribers in its sneak rollout) while public divestment targets were also subdued in the budget but are firming up. The Global ID cards will be implemented pretty slowly, starting off as a Central database, depending of departmental initiative to share information from tax to passport and BPL ration cards, credit card data and other biometric features to enable security and duplicate allocations etc.
    Health and Education have just recently been provided a long lost policy focus. But these investments will also yield success only when the fully integrate into India’s new Lifestyle Economy. Today the same investments are required in the US and the developing world. We need roads, we need power supply, we need an educated performing population and we need affordable healthcare.
    There are other things to be done. To quote the Policy pages of The Economic Times ( pg. 11, Arvind Mayaram) – While investments in roads, ports, airports and urban amenities have a cascading effect on the virtuous cycle of stimulating demand..the impact is the quickest and most spread out through investment in tourism infrastructure. India received just 5.37 million foreign tourists as compared to 57.6 million in Spain. Tourism arrivals grew during the recession worldwide as well.
    Global collaboration and Private enterprise cannot function without the appropriate investment infrastructure either. Investment flows are still uneven and the tenets of this new dream unpostulated. The new web has however found an entry point in global business with increasing discussions on structuring the global memes that bring in change. The question is, as they say in Hindi – Kaise hoga? How will we make it happen!
    India’s ICICI Bank is redesigning itself, taking more control of Investment Banking and Venture Capital business while private sector banking players are watching from the sidelines with Kotak Bank and Yes Bank not having the underwriting power or the global reach to finance and provide institutional support to those like the Innovative Film City in Bangalore or even others in and around New Delhi, Bombay, Bangalore and the growing cities of the country making this new boom more a story on paper yet than on the ground. It will be private enterprise that will win in the end with divestments from the government netting probably Rs 50,000 crores to the government to provide the support ( current target is firming up at Rs 15000 Crores or $ 3.15 billion)
    This is our story and we have to make it happen. When it does happen it will be a sterling surprise for India’s citizens. One budget cannot make it happen. But all of us can. And we have already decided to make it happen. Onward we move after Outsourcing, to new avenues for progress and growth. Will the Banking sector step up to the requirement? Will new social media bring in more than awareness and readership? How will we move forward? This is not about enabling policy. This is about hard investments. Anyone who can make a successful investment in India’s Lifestyle story will be able to create a successful brand and a successful business empire. Anyone who supports Private Consumption will have the right project skills to win for Team India.
    Tags: Global Investing, BRIC, Emerging Markets, India, India Infrastructure, Retail Lifestyle, Infrastructure, urban infrastructure, rural infrastructure, Power, Roads, Entertainment, Advantage zyaada, zyaada, zyakaira, Lifestyle Economy, Amitonomics

    Posted via email from The investment blog on Post

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  • A Hollywood-Ending Portfolio – Forbes.com
    July 1, 2009 | 11:02 am

    As recession-weary Americans flock to the cinema, Hollywood has had good fortune in a year when most other industries are fighting for survival. According to Box Office Mojo, theatrical receipts are tallying close to 12% ahead of 2008. But which studios have lured moviegoers into theaters in this recession, and how can you turn a profit with them?Studios like Warner Bros. and Paramount are outperforming expectations, jam-packing the summer movie season with anticipated blockbusters. However, the real success seems to be coming from small and mid-size films. Warner Bros., a unit of Time Warner TWX – news – people , saw its comedy The Hangover pass the $180 million mark, and if it follows the path of Wedding Crashers, a comparable R-rated comedy, it could end up making north of $225 million by the time its out of theaters. What makes The Hangover all the more impressive as a moneymaker is that it was made on the cheap–by Hollywood standards–for a mere $35 million.

    via A Hollywood-Ending Portfolio – Forbes.com.

    At this point last year, Iron Man had already crossed the $300 million mark, with Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull closing in. A 2009 movie of this genre–most likely Transformers–may not break the $300 million threshold until mid-July.

    But 2009 may still eclipse 2008’s total revenue and take the crown as the highest-grossing year at the box office. One executive at Time Warner cited a “diverse film slate” for Warner’s success in particular, pointing to its investment in both large and small films.

    James Marsh, senior research analyst at Piper Jaffray ( PJC – news – people ), was bullish on the sector though he mentioned that not all studios are created equal. “I think the guys that have the most exposure to theatrical [releases] seem to be holding up well,” he said. This, he pointed out, worked in favor of smaller companies.

    Though small- and medium-budget films don’t necessarily have the built-in audience recognition of a Batman or Star Wars franchise, their profits are still very realistic. The Proposal, only two weeks into its run, has out-grossed Land of the Lost, a film that cost more than twice as much to produce and had the kitsch value of a campy canceled TV series behind it.

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  • Indian Market Tweets @zyakaira for Friday, June 19
    June 19, 2009 | 6:00 am

    PVR raising another tranche of Private Equity while profit making ventures hold back _TYY4

    Hotels begin to fill up again as Indians settle for domestic holidays _TYY4(ftags)
    less than 20 seconds ago from TweetDeck

    Govt not to allow offshore SPVs so easily _TYY4
    1 minute ago from TweetDeck

    Vipul Shah’s London Dreams, Akshay’s Blue and Aamir’s 3 Idiots are pitching for $27 million but no buyers – No UTVi, Eros or Studio 18 _TYY4
    2 minutes ago from TweetDeck

    Ghazini was bought for $20 m, Wellcome for $10 million by Studio 18, Singh is Kingg also for $13 million _TYY4
    6 minutes ago from TweetDeck

    PVR, Mahindra Holidays coming out with IPOs _TYY4
    7 minutes ago from TweetDeck

    Innovative reopens in Bangalore _TYY4
    7 minutes ago from TweetDeck

    Bollywood dumping big budget movies because of the industry rift/slowdown _TYY4
    8 minutes ago from TweetDeck

    Hyderabad Metro has finally decided Maytas cannot execute the 12000-crore rupees project #Indian #Stocks _TYY4
    9 minutes ago from TweetDeck

    B’lore promo #1: Fast Social media updates leave you dizzy? Feel priceless about it with the New Nokia N97.. http://tr.im/twiN97 <<<Call us
    about 1 hour ago from web

    Market trend unlikely to improve. Time for value buying #Indian #Stocks Spend time at http://bit.ly/ESXFE for an insider view of the budget
    about 2 hours ago from CoTweet

    RT @zyaada Check @blrmoneytalkz for Investments #Indian #Stocks #GDOW and @urban_mash for city and lifestyle chatter
    about 2 hours ago from CoTweet

    Is Retail going to bounce back? http://bit.ly/5943b (We are at http://advantages.us)
    about 2 hours ago from CoTweet

    Market trend unlikely to improve. Good time for value buying
    about 2 hours ago from CoTweet

    B'lore promo #1: Fast Social media updates leave you dizzy? Feel priceless about it with the New Nokia N97.. http://tr.im/twiN97 <<<Call us
    about 2 hours ago from web

    $FXE Euro likely to reverse trend now and start back to 1.45
    about 2 hours ago from CoTweet

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  • Gen X recommends new upcoming corporate houses in Bollywood
    June 8, 2009 | 5:05 pm

    The global credit crisis has hit the Indian entertainment industry as well, contrary to the popular opinion and consensus that entertainment and gaming industry are actually recession proof. And now an interesting theme is emerging out of all this in Bollywood.

    After getting the industry status in 1998, Bollywood saw some big corporate houses(Reliance ventured in to Adlabs, Big Pictures, Big Music etc) taking some serious interest in this industry and a host of production companies(PNC, Percept Pictures, Excel Entertainment, Sahara) and distributors came into existence. As a result the industry saw a structural shift, giving rise to companies that could now produce more films in a year, could distribute them on their own and making good margins. This lifted Bollywood out of the shambles that it was in just decade ago. The effect being that Hollywood studios like Disney, Pixar, Fox want to co-produce, and invest in Indian cinema. This will automatically lead to increase in overseas sales which currently contribute roughly 10% of the total revenues.

    Bollywood has also grown in size as the producers don’t need to depend on theatrical releases alone in order to recover their investment. Home videos and satellite rights were also contributing significantly to their top and bottom lines.

    The studio model and an idea of having a production house was pioneered by none other than Yash Chopra himself, the biggest name in Indian cinema who has given some memorable movies like Chandni, Silsila, Kabhi kabhi etc. However, the recent years haven’t been very profitable for the company. With a host of films like Tashan, Tara Rum Pum, Kabul Express, Roadside Romeo(animated movie,co-produced by Walt Disney), Thoda Pyaar Thodi Magic all failed to perform well at the box office even after having A-list actors in their kitty for every project. The only projects that did well at the box office were noth SRK starrer ‘Chak De India’ and ‘Rab ne bana di jodi’.

    YRF seems to be in serious trouble now. They recently laid-off 20 people; apparently they were executive producers. They are also stepping back from the distribution business now, as they are now turning extremely risk-averse. Due to this, Karan Johar(owner of Dharma Productions)who literally admires Yash Chopra’s work and contribution to cinema and is a close family friend, had to find new distributors(UTV Software Communications) for his upcoming releases Ranbir Kapoor starrer ‘Wake up Sid’ and Multi-starrer film ‘New York’. KJo managed to sell both his movies for a whopping Rs 78 cr.

    But in my opinion the biggest cause of YRF’s troubles is not recession(which came in only later) but bad choice of scripts and high cost of production. They also marketed the product in a wrong way, projecting an image of something which was not the true essence of the movie, like Tashan. I guess they did take risks by giving chances to new directors and script-writers but they failed to execute things well. Some of the bets paid off well like Chak De India. But we all know that a company can’t depend on 2-3 break out successes. They have to be consistent in performance and have to market the product for what it is. And these days the ‘word of mouth’ travels 10x faster than before, Therefore a bad movie will die out more rapidly, with box office collections falling sharply in a couple of days time, with bad reviews floating all the over the internet with blogs and discussions dissecting the movie and performances, as opposed to a week’s time earlier on.

    I see a leader emerging out of all this chaos though. Progressing gradually and carefully, UTV Software Communications(listed in AIM/BSE in 2005) is now one of the biggest names in the industry challenging established players in scale and box office success across different genres and budgets. They gave a bunch of hits in 2008, like Fashion, Oye Lucky Lucky Oye, Jodha Akbar and Race. Although Race and JA contributed 30% to the kitty, the company’s business model is to produce a mixed range of films, including small and big budget movies, signing the best talent and bringing efficiency in production costs.

    UTV seems to be diversifying their portfolio of movies/IPRs pretty well, producing movies on new and old themes in order to cater to the tastes of diverse and demanding Indian audiences. They are actually carving out a niche for themselves, where people have started associating quality with their name. Although recession has hit them equally, they are not going to scale back this year. They are actually hoping to see some rationalization is their cost structure, which seems difficult, as bulk of the costs are ‘Star Costs’. If they manage to get that correction, then probably they could also get a better ROI(Return on Investment). I guess another big chunk of expenditure is marketing costs, and this has actually increased as a % of total budget of the movie, because pictures are promoted as brands these days and hence involve more investments in marketing them.
    In 2008 they produced 10 movies, and this year the pipeline contains 15-16 odd films. The next big one I am really waiting for is Vishal Bharadwaj’s Kaminey starring Shahid Kapoor and Priyanka Chopra expected sometime in June 2009.

    As a result of the economic slowdown, I can see a serious shift towards good content, efficient capital allocation and correction in star prices(Akshay Kumar charged Rs 20 cr for Tasveer, and it grossed Rs 16cr at the box office)which was making it difficult to recover costs most of the times. I guess only the strongest and the most versatile can weather this storm and one day an Indian movie produced, directed, distributed and performed by Indian artists, based on an Indian subject would get an Oscar.

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  • Reliance ADA – Life Insurance worth 12000 crore
    June 8, 2009 | 5:16 am

    Reliance Capital who stock is almost up by more than 45 percent in just 4 trading session has informed that its looking to divest up to 26 percent in its insurance arm Reliance Life Insurance through an IPO as well as by inducting a strategic investor. Reliance Capital holds 100% in Reliance Life Insurance. Reliance Life Insurance would be valued well in excess of Rs 12,000 crore and they will have more clear picture on it in another 3 to 4 months.
    Reliance Life insurance is considered to be 4th strongest in line next to ICICI, SBI Life and Bajaj Allianz. They have almost more than 10 percent share in the indian insurance market.
     via <a href=’www.rupya.com’>Rupya</a>

    zyakaira notes: The 3-4 insurance IPOs including ICICI Bank IPO for separating capital structures and governance would themselves bring companies with a valuation of INR 120000 Crores or around $25 Billion to the listed markets at BSE and NSE. Along with the PSUs and Infra stocks we may be adding market cap equivalent to India’s GDP in these 1-2 years and raising more than $10 billion from the markets

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  • Reliance ADA to launch film/TV outsourcing unit | FT.com
    June 7, 2009 | 3:13 pm

    Adlabs Films, India’s largest multiplex chain, controlled by billionaire industrialist Anil Ambani, is launching one of the country’s biggest outsourcing businesses to service the global movie and television industries.

    The new unit will digitise films and television shows from clients’ archives or libraries, restore old prints and adapt content for use in different formats, such as DVDs or mobile phones.

    Its first contract is from the state-run National Film Archive of India in Pune to digitise and restore 1,000 films.

    “One [area of work] is the old legacy content, which has to be converted into digital, including all these studio classics – Paramount, Mickey Mouse and all of that – and then there is all of the television content,” said Anil Arjun, chief executive officer of Adlabs.

    Mr Ambani’s Reliance group is not the first Indian company to target media outsourcing, but it claims to be the largest effort yet attempted, with a dedicated workforce starting at 300 people and scaling up to 1,200 in one year.

    The company says India’s competitive advantage is outsourcers’ ability to build quickly the scale necessary for large projects, such as the contract from the National Film Archive of India.

    Adlabs operates 430 multiplexes in India, the US and Malaysia and has a film and media services unit specialising in post-production and processing among other things.

    The company is a unit of Mr Ambani’s Reliance ADAG group, which also has a tie-up with Stephen Spielberg’s DreamWorks. It argues that its 25-year history in the film industry will enable it to trump competition from existing operators that are more experienced in outsourcing.

    These include a joint venture between outsourcing company Genpact and media group NDTV, and a separate tie-up between another conventional outsourcing group Infosys BPO and TV 18, a media conglomerate.

    The joint venture between Infosys and TV 18, Source18, does not have a dedicated team for media outsourcing but instead assembles teams as necessary when contracts come in.

    via FT.com / India.

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